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  • January 2025: A Familiar Start—Echoes of January 2022?

January 2025: A Familiar Start—Echoes of January 2022?

January 2025: 0.1% after fees. 2024 full year: 36.9% after fees. Since Inception (Oct 2023): 43.7% after fees.

1/12th of the way through 2025.

As we step into what may be a volatile February, our focus remains on disciplined risk management and sustained long-term performance. While we monitor our progress on a monthly basis, the true benchmark is the Fund’s annual performance. It’s important to remember that returns aren’t evenly distributed throughout the year—a flat January is simply part of the process.

January's market action tested the patience and prudence of many traders and funds, as indices swung amid heightened volatility and mixed signals. In this environment, Solimar Fund remained largely flat, posting a modest 0.1% return after fees. This performance underscores the value of our proprietary Systematic Throttle—a risk management system specifically engineered to navigate uncertain conditions.

We’re still early in 2025, but as you can see in the table below, we’re starting to build a solid track record—and that feels good. After a strong 2024, where we came close to our ambitious goal of doubling the S&P 500, each new data point adds to the bigger picture of our strategy in action.

Implying a Risk-Off Market: The Power of Our Systematic Throttle

Market conditions are constantly shifting, and staying invested at all times is not the same as staying disciplined. Our Systematic Throttle is designed to dynamically adjust exposure, ensuring that we are fully engaged when the odds favor us and defensive when conditions warrant caution.

This past month, the system signaled a risk-off stance, prompting the algo to limit exposure and preserve capital while broader markets experienced increased turbulence. While remaining mostly flat in a choppy market may not seem exciting, it is a deliberate choice—one that helps us sidestep unnecessary drawdowns and stay positioned for high-probability setups.

Drawdowns can be costly, both mathematically and psychologically. A 10% loss requires an 11% gain to recover, while a 20% loss requires a 25% gain, making risk management as important as capturing upside. By keeping our capital intact during uncertain periods, we protect our ability to press forward aggressively when conditions improve. This discipline is key to long-term compounding, allowing us to build on our gains rather than constantly playing catch-up.

The ability to scale risk exposure up or down as conditions evolve is what differentiates our approach. Many investors stay fully invested through all cycles, riding out volatility in hopes of long-term gains. In contrast, our systematic approach aims to sidestep the worst of market stress, ensuring that we are positioned with conviction when high-probability opportunities emerge. Capital preservation is not just about defense—it’s about setting the stage for strategic offense.

Lifetime Performance Comparison: Solimar Fund vs. SPY

Since we’re only one month into the year, we’re including a lifetime performance chart below and will return to the 2025 YTD chart in future updates.

  • Solimar Fund Net Lifetime Performance (10/1/23- 1/31/25): 43.7%

  • SPY Performance (10/1/23- 1/31/25): 40.8%

 Looking Ahead

Risk management isn’t about avoiding volatility altogether—it’s about knowing when to press forward and when to ease off the gas. Our mission remains unchanged: capture outsized returns while minimizing long-term risk. As we head deeper into Q1, our system is monitoring market conditions closely and looking for opportunities to emerge where it can deploy capital more aggressively.

We are grateful for your continued trust and confidence as we execute our strategy.

For those considering joining Solimar Fund, now is the time—our journey toward $10M AUM is well underway, and spots are filling quickly. If you're interested in learning more, we’d love to connect.

Here’s to a disciplined and opportunity-filled 2025!

Thank you all for your support, and here’s to an even more successful year ahead!

Enjoy the ride.

Geoffrey & Tyler

Disclaimer
Solimar Fund is a private fund operating under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D, which allows us to engage in general solicitation and advertising to raise an unlimited amount of capital from accredited investors, provided we take reasonable steps to verify their accredited investor status. This fund is exclusively available for investment by accredited investors, as defined by applicable securities laws
This material does not constitute an offer or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in Solimar Fund, LP (the “Fund”), which such offer will only be made via a confidential private placement memorandum. An investment in the Fund is speculative and is subject to a risk of loss, including a risk of loss of principal. There is no secondary market for interests in the Fund and none is expected to develop. No assurance can be given that the Fund will achieve its objective or that an investor will receive a return of all or part of its investment. All statements herein are qualified in their entirety by reference to the Memorandum, and to the extent that this document contradicts the Memorandum, the Memorandum shall govern in all respects.
The hypothetical backtest results presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual trading or future performance. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results. The backtest is based on historical data and assumptions that may not be accurate or complete. Investors should not rely solely on this information when making investment decisions and should consult with financial advisors to understand all risks associated with investing in our hedge fund.
Past and simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any performance data prior 10/2023 does not represent the performance of the Solimar Fund. 2023 performance data prior to launching the Fund is taken from actual returns net of fees from a live trading account managed by 2by2 Capital. Data prior to 2023 represent the simulated performance of 2by2 Capital’s Multi-Strategy algorithm.
Information provided reflects 2by2 Capital’s views as of the date of this document. Such views are subject to change at any point without notice. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Nothing presented herein is or is intended to constitute investment advice, and no investment decision should be made based on any information provided herein. There is a risk of loss from an investment in securities, including the risk of loss of principal. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable or suitable for a particular investor’s financial situation or risk tolerance. Asset allocation and portfolio diversification cannot assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. There can be no assurance that the performance achieved above will be achieved at any time in the future. All investments involve risk, including the loss of the entire investment.